The Science

Researchers developed a new modeling software package that allows many alternative models to be posed, run, and analyzed as an ensemble, saving scientists time and providing a path to decrease uncertainty in modeling analyses.

The Impact

There are many ways to represent real-world processes in computer models. But it is common that only a single representation is used in any given model, leading to results that are model specific. This new code now allows the modeling community to move away from the single-representation method to using many alternative models in a single study for a richer analysis that more broadly encompasses the current state of knowledge about ecosystem processes.

Summary

Alternative ways that real-world processes can be represented in computer models is a huge source of uncertainty in model output. Yet, tools and modeling systems to examine these alternatives are not available. Researchers at Oak Ridge National Laboratory and a team of national and international collaborators have developed software that can combine alternative ways to represent many real-world processes into a complete set of all possible combinations of the alternatives. This will give a full range of possible model results and goes beyond the single-instance approach to running models. The software also includes novel tools for analysis of model sensitivity to alternative process models.

Principal Investigator

Anthony Walker
Oak Ridge National Laboratory
walkerap@ornl.gov

Program Manager

Daniel Stover
U.S. Department of Energy, Biological and Environmental Research (SC-33)
Environmental System Science
daniel.stover@science.doe.gov

Funding

Oak Ridge National Laboratory Terrestrial Ecosystem Science Scientific Focus Area and Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments (NGEE)–Tropics project by the Office of Biological and Environmental Research within the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Science.

Related Links

• Paper
• GITHUB MAAT

References