2024 Abstracts

Integrating Global Land-Use Change Drivers into ELM-FATES


Charles Koven1* (cdkoven@lbl.gov), Jeffrey Chambers1,2, Alan DiVittorio1, Rosie Fisher3, Adrianna Foster4, Jennifer Holm1, Ryan Knox1, Lara Kueppers1,5, David Lawrence4, Peter Lawrence4, Greg Lemieux1, Marcos Longo1, Jessica Needham1, Shijie Shu1, Polly Thornton5, Anthony Walker6


1Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA; 2Department of Geography, University of California–Berkeley, CA; 3CICERO Centre for International Climate and Environmental Research, Oslo, Norway; 4National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO; 5Energy and Resources Group, University of California–Berkeley, CA; 6Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN



The vegetation demographic model E3SM Land Model–Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator (ELM-FATES) allows for the representation of disturbance processes and their legacies through a patch-based representation of subgrid-scale disturbance history. The project has extended the prior representation of natural disturbance and anthropogenic logging activities to include a generalized representation of natural and anthropogenic land use disturbance. The team leverages the patch concept in the model to include both continuous (age since last disturbance) and categorical (land use type; optionally plant functional type if prescribing land cover) variables. Land use types currently include primary lands, secondary lands, rangelands, pastures, and croplands. The model is driven directly by global historical and scenario-dependent future land-use states and transitions from the Land-Use Harmonization 2 dataset, which sets initial amounts, drives dynamic changes to land use type areas, and updates land cover. Land cover changes in the model respond to land use change in the driver datasets either through management activities (if prognosing land cover) or through a spatially resolved, time-independent land use to plant functional type correspondence dataset based on remote sensing data (if prescribing land cover). The one-way conversion of land use from primary to secondary land from logging, as well as the resolved legacies of land use, require a different approach to model initialization than is used in non-demographic models. The team will present model design, initialization strategies, and initial results.